Anna Hazare Vs Arvind Kejriwal--What is the confusion

Anna vs Arvind

Recently,  other than India going out of world cup T-20, the other big news item is Arvind Kejriwal political party announcement and Anna Hazare making tons of public announcements to make it clear that he has nothing to do with that.

Why Anna Hazare is making himself so distant from this.

I am not questioning the intentions of either of them, both of them have shown enough proves that they are totally clean and do not have any personal agenda. They both want to get India rid of Corruption and make India a better country to live for coming generations. Then why do they seems to on war paths in recent days.

Though Arvind Kejriwal is for more educated , Anna Hazare seems to be far more learnt when it comes to polity of India. Anna knows that right intentions and everything else is fair, you can’t win elections in India just like that.  As they say, the rules to win elections in India are simple .

Path 1:

1.       Money and lot of Money:  First spend lot of money to get ‘ ticket’ of a party who have done the hardwork of creating a brand in last 40-50 years. For me there is nothing new, even this happens in corporate world and any other business. People buy HLL products easier than a new FMCG brand so people who want to distribute HLL products need to pay more money to get that distributorship

2.       Then spend lot of money in campaign.  This is again marketing money spend by largest of corporations of world.  As large MNC’s do targeting before giving advertisements, politicians also do the same. They Target lower income group of people, spend money there in dinners and drinks and get votes next morning.

3.       The target group generally do not read newspapers, do not go to Janter Manter or listen news channels.  So reaching them is a very different ball game.

Now, The situation is not that bad. Many people are successful politicians without having spent money. So let us see their path

Path 2:

1.       Start working in a small area and be popular with people

2.       Be available to help them solve all their problems starting from Electricity to Water to Hygiene to small police matters

3.       Be ready to be awaken at 2 in night to go with someone

4.       Do this for 5 years and you would surely win your first election.

5.       Get lot of people to do that and you would create a successful party

6.       So the crux is full time with overtime involvement of people for next 10 years.

Anna knows that team Anna can’t follow either path 1 or path 2. So the third path is to be in good books of people/ politicians and get your stuff done. If you fight elections and lose, then you are over. There is a famous saying

‘ Band mutthi lakh ki khul jaye to khak ki’

So  till you haven’t contested and lost a election, you can always claim to be carrying people sentiments and demands with you. But once you fight and lose, you are finished.

Anna knows that it is best to keep your fist closed and still get media attention. Once  party is formed and elections are lost, no media guy would ever cover you.

How President of India is Elected

Lot many people ask me about the mathematics behind the election of President of India. Though it seems to be a non serious position in Indian context, the approach is surely very serious and unlike in 60's and 70's when Congress used to get their man ( or woman) elected easily, this is not the case any more.

 Let us first see the maths:

President of India is elected by all elected MPs and MLAs across the nation, as they all are representatives of the masses. As of current scenario India has 776 MPs and 4,120 MLAs. To elect President of India MPs and MLAs have certain vote value.

MPs vote have a value of 708, which is uniform across the nation, irrespective of the parties they belong to. But, MLAs have vote value according to their states, i.e. differs from state to state.

In total, 776 MPs have vote value of 549,408 (776x708) and 4,120 MLAs have total value of 549,474.

The total vote value of 776 MPs and 4,120 MLAs is 10,98, 882. Various political parties join hands with other regional  parties and allies to support their candidates and whoever supports with majority will get to crown President of their choice. And, this is how nation elects President of India through electoral college of MPs and MLAs.

So, the interpretation is  that MLA's also play a significant part in this and about 50% votes are with various MLA's across nation. Also, Rajya Sabha seats are also dependent upon position of parties in various state assemblies. 

With Congress and BJP losing in lot of states and bigger states like UP/Bihar/Bengal/TN not with any of them, they need support from various parties for their candidate.