Hi All
Many people/friends keep om discussing with me on how BJP won last elections and what worked /didn't worked. I always tell them why BJP success is one time formaule. We all know that BJP polled 31% of votes in LS 2014 elections but today I got a report that explain it all.
here is the link of that report
http://eci.nic.in/eci_main/archiveofge2014/17%20-%20State%20wise%20seat%20won%20and%20valid%20votes%20polled%20by%20political%20party.pdf
The conclusion is No Muslim votes for BJP.
BJP problem is 16% of Indian population but 25% of actual voters would never vote for BJP. Amit Shah and Modi understands this very well. So rather than beating around the bush, they worked on rest of 75% of votes.
In those 75% of votes , BJP need to score heavily + make sure that opposition votes split.
Now, refer to above report and look for UP data. BJP got 42.63% votes+0.02% to Apna dal making 43%. Still they got 71 seats. So it is not that BJP got 70% votes in UP.
Amit Shah was able to polarise non Muslim votes and in that 75%, BJP got 60% of votes. Rest still went to Congress and BSP.
Even in Delhi, where BJP won all 7, The votes are 46% to BJP
but funny thing to see is Chatisgarh. Only 25% votes and won 10 out of 11 seats
( Disclaimer: I write it for pure analytical pleasure and my blogs are hardly read by anyone so no hard feelings).
Many people/friends keep om discussing with me on how BJP won last elections and what worked /didn't worked. I always tell them why BJP success is one time formaule. We all know that BJP polled 31% of votes in LS 2014 elections but today I got a report that explain it all.
here is the link of that report
http://eci.nic.in/eci_main/archiveofge2014/17%20-%20State%20wise%20seat%20won%20and%20valid%20votes%20polled%20by%20political%20party.pdf
The conclusion is No Muslim votes for BJP.
BJP problem is 16% of Indian population but 25% of actual voters would never vote for BJP. Amit Shah and Modi understands this very well. So rather than beating around the bush, they worked on rest of 75% of votes.
In those 75% of votes , BJP need to score heavily + make sure that opposition votes split.
Now, refer to above report and look for UP data. BJP got 42.63% votes+0.02% to Apna dal making 43%. Still they got 71 seats. So it is not that BJP got 70% votes in UP.
Amit Shah was able to polarise non Muslim votes and in that 75%, BJP got 60% of votes. Rest still went to Congress and BSP.
Even in Delhi, where BJP won all 7, The votes are 46% to BJP
but funny thing to see is Chatisgarh. Only 25% votes and won 10 out of 11 seats
( Disclaimer: I write it for pure analytical pleasure and my blogs are hardly read by anyone so no hard feelings).
